National League South | Gameweek 25
Jan 4, 2025 at 3pm UK
Treyew Road

Truro City
2 - 1
Hornchurch

Palfrey (82'), Neal (90+7')
Dean (33'), Sanders (62')
FT(HT: 0-0)
McQueen (90+3')
Bertram-Cooper (90+3'), D (90+11')
Coverage of the National League South clash between Truro City and AFC Hornchurch.

Form, Standings, Stats

Truro City

All competitions
Last Game: Torquay Utd 1-0 Truro City
Wednesday, January 1 at 3pm in National League South

AFC Hornchurch

All competitions
Last Game: Aveley 1-1 Hornchurch
Thursday, December 26 at 1pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Truro City win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for AFC Hornchurch had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Truro City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest AFC Hornchurch win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Truro City would win this match.

Result
Truro CityDrawAFC Hornchurch
38.21% (-0.326 -0.33)27.12% (-0.103 -0.1)34.67% (0.42 0.42)
Both teams to score 50.42% (0.368 0.37)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.05% (0.439 0.44)54.94% (-0.445 -0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.77% (0.36 0.36)76.22% (-0.36800000000001 -0.37)
Truro City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.08% (0.02000000000001 0.02)27.91% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.47% (0.029000000000003 0.03)63.53% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
AFC Hornchurch Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.94% (0.48599999999999 0.49)30.06% (-0.494 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.81% (0.582 0.58)66.19% (-0.59099999999999 -0.59)
Score Analysis
    Truro City 38.2%
    AFC Hornchurch 34.66%
    Draw 27.11%
Truro CityDrawAFC Hornchurch
1-0 @ 10.7% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-1 @ 8.21% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.83% (-0.109 -0.11)
3-1 @ 3.49% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.91% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.025 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.11% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 0.93% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 38.2%
1-1 @ 12.86% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 8.39% (-0.146 -0.15)
2-2 @ 4.94% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 27.11%
0-1 @ 10.08% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.74% (0.083 0.08)
0-2 @ 6.06% (0.06 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.1% (0.074 0.07)
0-3 @ 2.43% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.98% (0.05 0.05)
1-4 @ 0.93% (0.034 0.03)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 34.66%