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Ligue 1

Brest logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 15
Nov 13, 2022 at 2pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Troyes

Brest
2 - 1
Troyes

Del Castillo (55' pen.), Mounie (77' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-0)
Chardonnet (60' og.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Troyes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Last Game: Nice 1-0 Brest
Sunday, November 6 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Troyes

All competitions
Last Game: Troyes 1-1 Auxerre
Friday, November 4 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Brest in this match.

Result
BrestDrawTroyes
43.85% (0.064999999999998 0.06)24.01% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)32.14% (-0.058 -0.06)
Both teams to score 60.18% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.97% (0.017000000000003 0.02)42.03% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.57% (0.017000000000003 0.02)64.43% (-0.018999999999991 -0.02)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.6% (0.033999999999992 0.03)19.39% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.79% (0.056999999999995 0.06)51.2% (-0.059000000000005 -0.06)
Troyes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.66% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)25.34% (0.025000000000002 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.87% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)60.12% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Brest 43.85%
    Troyes 32.14%
    Draw 24%
BrestDrawTroyes
2-1 @ 9.08% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.06% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 6.61% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.96% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.61% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.41% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 2.04% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.48% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.4% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 43.85%
1-1 @ 11.06% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.23%
0-0 @ 4.91% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-3 @ 1.56%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24%
1-2 @ 7.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-1 @ 6.75% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.63% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.48% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.85% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 2.12% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.19% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-4 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 32.14%

How you voted: Brest vs Troyes

Brest
43.6%
Draw
35.9%
Troyes
20.5%
39
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2022 2pm
Brest
5-1
Troyes
Satriano (7', 27'), Honorat (49', 67'), Mounie (82')
Agoume (15'), Der Zakarian (66')
Rami (45')
Tardieu (43')
Dec 22, 2021 8pm
Troyes
1-1
Brest
Rami (80')
Kabore (13'), Moulin (13')
Honorat (5')
Herelle (22'), Mounie (54')
Jan 12, 2019 2pm
Brest
1-1
Troyes
Autret (38')
Larsonneur (56'), Belaud (71'), Autret (72'), N'Goma (90')
Weber (90')
Mbeumo (51')
Marcel (74'), Obiang (75')
Obiang (90')
Jan 10, 2019
12am
Brest  
vs.
  Troyes
Aug 3, 2018 7pm
Troyes
1-2
Brest
Touzghar (13')
Kashi (41'), Obiang (45')
Charbonnier (37', 42')