Granted, the Galaxy have upped their game in recent weeks, but Philadelphia possess more than enough quality to overcome the Western Conference strugglers.
The hosts are expected to put up a decent fight, but we can see Philly notching a narrow victory at Dignity Health Sports Park, enjoying a much-needed return to winning ways.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Los Angeles Galaxy would win this match.