Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 28.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.