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Conference League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
May 2, 2024 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
Olympiacos

Aston Villa
2 - 4
Olympiacos

Watkins (45+1'), Diaby (52')
Diaby (83')
FT(HT: 1-2)
El Kaabi (16', 29', 56' pen.), Hezze (67')
Fortounis (83')

The Match

Match Report

A hat-trick from Ayoub El Kaabi helps Olympiacos record a 4-2 win over Aston Villa in the first leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final on Thursday night.

Team News

Unai Emery makes three changes to his Aston Villa XI for the Europa Conference League semi-final first leg against Olympiacos.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Aston Villa and Olympiacos, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea
Saturday, April 27 at 8pm in Premier League

Olympiacos

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Olympiacos 4-1 Lamia
Sunday, April 28 at 3pm in Greek Superleague

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Olympiacos had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.25%) and 2-0 (5.67%). The likeliest Olympiacos win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.

Result
Aston VillaDrawOlympiacos
39.23% (0.041000000000004 0.04)23.97% (-0.004999999999999 -0)36.81% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.57% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.27% (0.023000000000003 0.02)40.73% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.89% (0.022999999999996 0.02)63.11% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.07% (0.030000000000001 0.03)20.93% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.33% (0.047000000000004 0.05)53.67% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
Olympiacos Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)22.13% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.49% (-0.012 -0.01)55.51% (0.012 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 39.23%
    Olympiacos 36.81%
    Draw 23.96%
Aston VillaDrawOlympiacos
2-1 @ 8.54% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.25% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 5.67% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-1 @ 4.45% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.36% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 2.95% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 1.74% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.31% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 1.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 39.23%
1-1 @ 10.92% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.44% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 4.63% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.69% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 23.96%
1-2 @ 8.24% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 6.99% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.27% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.14% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-3 @ 3.24%
0-3 @ 2.65% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.56% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 1.22%
0-4 @ 1% (-0.0019999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 36.81%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Olympiacos

Aston Villa
84.2%
Draw
7.5%
Olympiacos
8.3%
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