Europa League

Europa League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

May 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
1 - 1
Atalanta

(Atalanta BC win 4-1 on aggregate)

Mbemba (20')
Balerdi (68')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Scamacca (11')

The Match

Match Report

Chancel Mbemba cancels out an opener from Gianluca Scamacca, as Marseille draw 1-1 with Atalanta BC in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final in France.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Marseille 2-1 Lens
Sunday, April 28 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Atalanta 2-0 Empoli
Sunday, April 28 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 38.75%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 35.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (6.23%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Atalanta BC
35.96% ( -0.07)	25.29% ( -0.01)	38.75% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 56.66% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.96% (

0.05)

47.04% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.72% (

0.05)

69.28% (

-0.05)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.52% (

-0.02)

25.48% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.68% (

-0.02)

60.32% (

0.02)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.04% (

0.07)

23.96% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.81% (

0.09)

58.19% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Marseille 35.96%

Atalanta BC 38.75%

Draw 25.28%

Marseille	Draw	Atalanta BC
1-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.72% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.27% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.6% Total : 35.96%	1-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.28%	0-1 @ 8.72% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.52% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.98% Total : 38.75%