Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 38.75%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 35.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (6.23%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.