Brasileiro | Gameweek 14
Jul 9, 2023 at 3pm UK
Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Santos4 - 3Goias
We said: Santos 1-0 Goias
Given Santos' repeated shortcomings in the final third and Goias' well-documented phobia of scoring on the road, a goal-laden contest may not be on any fan's bingo card this weekend. Turra's side certainly need to start picking up results soon before the crisis sets in - if it has not already - but with a couple more days of rest, Santos and their fresh legs can finally pull themselves out of their rut and avoid another Emerald Green beating courtesy of a slender win, however ugly it may be. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 57.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Goias had a probability of 17.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.02%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Goias win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santos | Draw | Goias |
57.39% ( 0.02) | 24.87% ( 0.1) | 17.74% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 42.77% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
