Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 16, 2024 at 4pm UK

Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecote

Ethiopia
0 - 2
Tanzania

Demissie (52'), Manula (77')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Msuva (15'), Salum (31')
Dismas (58'), Mnata (69'), Manula (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Ethiopia and Tanzania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ethiopia 0-3 Guinea
Tuesday, October 15 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Tanzania

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Tanzania 0-2 Congo DR
Tuesday, October 15 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 33.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tanzania would win this match.

Result
Ethiopia	Draw	Tanzania
33.91% ( -1.73)	28.38% ( -0.72)	37.71% ( 2.44)

Both teams to score 46.53% (

1.93)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.25% (

2.4)

59.75% (

-2.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.95% (

1.8)

80.05% (

-1.81)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67% (

0.09)

33% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.42% (

0.11)

69.58% (

-0.11)

Tanzania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.44% (

2.78)

30.56% (

-2.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.21% (

3.17)

66.79% (

-3.18)

Score Analysis

Ethiopia 33.9%

Tanzania 37.7%

Draw 28.38%

Ethiopia	Draw	Tanzania
1-0 @ 11.17% ( -1.03) 2-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.55) 3-1 @ 2.72% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.9%	1-1 @ 13.25% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.95) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.29) Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.38%	0-1 @ 11.95% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.86% ( 0.5) 0-2 @ 7.09% ( 0.43) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.41) 0-3 @ 2.8% ( 0.36) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.23) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.26% Total : 37.7%