2.Bundesliga | Gameweek 23
Feb 23, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Holstein-Stadion

Holstein Kiel
3 - 4
St Pauli

Machino (53'), Mees (65'), Bernhardsson (82')
Schulz (45')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Afolayan (11', 36'), Hartel (34'), Metcalfe (57')
Saliakas (90+4'), Hurzeler (90+5')
Coverage of the 2.Bundesliga clash between Holstein Kiel and St Pauli.

Form, Standings, Stats

Holstein Kiel

All competitions
Last Game: SC Paderborn 0-4 Holstein Kiel
Saturday, February 17 at 12pm in 2.Bundesliga

St Pauli

All competitions
2.Bundesliga
Last Game: St Pauli 1-0 Braunschweig
Sunday, February 18 at 12.30pm in 2.Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 30.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.45%) and 0-2 (6.14%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
Holstein KielDrawSt Pauli
30.12% (0.004999999999999 0)22.2% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)47.68% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Both teams to score 65.76% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.75% (0.028000000000006 0.03)34.25% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.85% (0.031999999999996 0.03)56.15% (-0.032999999999994 -0.03)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.25% (0.02000000000001 0.02)22.75% (-0.020999999999997 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.57% (0.024999999999999 0.02)56.43% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.12% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)14.88% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.77% (0.018000000000001 0.02)43.23% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Holstein Kiel 30.12%
    St Pauli 47.68%
    Draw 22.2%
Holstein KielDrawSt Pauli
2-1 @ 7.07%
1-0 @ 5.01% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-0 @ 3.71% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-1 @ 3.49% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-2 @ 3.32% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-0 @ 1.83%
4-1 @ 1.29% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.23% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 30.12%
1-1 @ 9.55% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.73% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 3.39% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-3 @ 2.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 22.2%
1-2 @ 9.1% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
0-1 @ 6.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.14% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 5.78% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-3 @ 4.28% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 3.9% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
1-4 @ 2.75% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-4 @ 2.04% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-4 @ 1.86% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
1-5 @ 1.05% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-4 @ 1.01% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 47.68%

How you voted: Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli

Holstein Kiel
16.7%
Draw
50.0%
St Pauli
33.3%
6
Head to Head
Sep 17, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 6
St Pauli
5-1
Holstein Kiel
Metcalfe (4'), Smith (7'), Afolayan (38'), Ritzka (69'), Hartel (90+3')
Hurzeler (0'), Smith (27'), Burchert (45+2'), Saad (49')
Holtby (50')
Porath (16'), Holtby (47'), Rothe (73')
May 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 33
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Skrzybski (28' pen.), Komenda (78'), Reese (90+3')
Becker (45+2'), Rapp (46'), Bartels (65'), Pichler (90+5'), Wahl (90+9')
Afolayan (39'), Wahl (53' og.), Daschner (61'), Paqarada (74')
Hurzeler (0'), Afolayan (77')
Afolayan (87')
Nov 8, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 16
St Pauli
0-0
Holstein Kiel
Dec 17, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 18
Holstein Kiel
3-0
St Pauli
Bartels (8'), Porath (29'), Pichler (45+1')
Thesker (56'), Arp (90')

Ziereis (56'), Paqarada (80'), Dittgen (86'), Ole Becker (90+1')
Jul 25, 2021 12.30pm
Gameweek 1
St Pauli
3-0
Holstein Kiel
Paqarada (11'), Kyereh (62'), Burgstaller (90+1')

Muhling (39')