Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 35.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
