Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 61.85%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 15.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.8%) and 1-2 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%) , while for a Tunisia win it was 1-0 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.