Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.28% and a win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 17.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.47%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%) , while for a Uzbekistan win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.