Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 64.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.45% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 10.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.19%) and 3-0 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.12%) , while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.