Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 67.88%. A draw had a probability of 22.28% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 9.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.52%) and 3-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.74%) , while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.