Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haiti win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Tunisia had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haiti win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest Tunisia win was 1-2 (8.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.