Preview: Tunisia vs Netherlands - prediction, team news, lineups

Tunisia arrive at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday with nothing but pride to play for, with their hopes of advancing from Group F already over ahead of their 2026 World Cup final group game against the Netherlands, who are looking to secure top spot.

The Dutch are heavily favoured across the best betting sites for the World Cup heading into the final group game, and it is no surprise, with the Eagles of Carthage already mathematically eliminated due to the new World Cup rule of head-to-head being the primary deciding factor over goal difference.

Match preview

Netherlands were nothing short of ruthless in their 5-1 demolition of Sweden on matchday two — with goals arriving in the 5th, 17th, 47th and 54th minutes before a fifth late on — with Ronald Koeman's side picking up their first win of the 2026 World Cup in style.

Brian Brobbey used his physical presence up front quite well, scoring the opening two goals to settle Dutch nerves, before Cody Gakpo added his own brace, and substitute Crysencio Summerville added gloss late on after Anthony Elanga had pulled one back for Sweden.

This performance embodied that of a pre-tournament favourite, a contrast from their opening draw with Japan (2-2), which showed a more vulnerable side, with Koeman’s team surrendering a lead twice and conceding a late equaliser in the 89th minute despite leading twice.

The Oranje, who are now top of Group F with four points and a better goal differential than Japan (also four points), are one result away from booking their place in the last 32, with a win over Tunisia likely to confirm them as group winners, while anything less could see them settle for second place.

Netherlands will be confident heading into this one, with the Dutch unbeaten in three meetings with the Eagles of Carthage (W1, D2), while they have never lost a World Cup game against an African team (W4, D1).

Herve Renard – who was brought in to salvage the situation after Sabri Lamouchi was fired following the 5-1 opening-day loss to Sweden – will hope to at least avoid another heavy Tunisia defeat against the Oranje.

The former Morocco head coach failed to spark an immediate change, with the Eagles of Carthage losing 4-0 to Japan in his first game in charge, failing to register a shot on target while confirming their elimination from the 2026 World Cup.

Tunisia became just the fourth team to lose two games in one World Cup tournament by four or more goals, and the first since Greece in 1994 – another heavy loss will see them become the first side to lose three by such a margin in a single edition.

If precedent is to be taken into account, there is little hope of redemption for the North Africans heading into Thursday’s clash, having won only one of their 13 World Cup meetings with European nations (D4, L8), while they have also won just three of 20 games in World Cup history (D5, L12).

Tunisia World Cup form:

Tunisia form (all competitions):

Netherlands World Cup form:

Netherlands form (all competitions):

Team News

Renard adopted the back-five system of his predecessor Lamouchi in the loss to Japan, but following another heavy loss, he could consider a back-four for this clash, with a full squad to choose from as there are no injury concerns.

One of Dylan Bronn, Omar Rekik and Montassar Talbi could drop from central defence, while Yan Valery and Ali Abdi – who has scored the most international goals among the current squad (seven) – maintain their spots at full-back.

Burnley’s Hannibal Mejbri is likely to take up the creative midfield role, with Ellyes Skhiri providing cover behind him and Anis Ben Slimane, who put in a decent shift last time out.

Netherlands, meanwhile, will look to welcome back Quinten Timber, who missed the win over Sweden due to concussion.

Brobbey should have done enough to keep his starting spot at the tip of the attack, though there are questions over a knock from the game against Sweden.

If he is fit enough, Donyell Malen and Gakpo are the likely starters beside him, though Summerville is battling hard to come back into the XI after his goal last time out.

Frenkie de Jong's composure in midfield has been a stabilising force throughout, and he should start again alongside Manchester City’s Tijjani Reijnders and Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch.

Tunisia possible starting lineup:

Dahmen; Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Ali Abdi; Skhiri; Slimane, Hannibal; Chaouat, Saad, Mastouri

Netherlands possible starting lineup:

Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van Hecke, Van de Ven; De Jong, Reijnders, Gravenberch; Malen, Brobbey, Gakpo

We say: Tunisia 0-3 Netherlands

Tunisia have offered precious little across two heavy defeats, and there is nothing in their numbers or quality to suggest a sudden transformation is coming.

The Dutch will be clinical and comfortable, and they are not expected to give the Eagles of Carthage any sniff in front of goal.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.