World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Sep 7, 2024 at 2am UK

Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Brazil
1 - 0
Ecuador

Rodrygo (30', 30')
Moura (78'), Moura (78')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Reaction

Estevao Willian making his Brazil debut on September 6, 2024.

Future Chelsea signing Estevao Willian makes Brazil debut in win over Kendry Paez's Ecuador

Estevao Willian - a future Chelsea signing - becomes the sixth youngest player in Brazil's history as Selecao earn a 1-0 win over Ecuador in World Cup qualifying.

Sep 7, 09:14

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Brazil and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Brazil could line up for Friday's 2026 World Cup qualifier against Ecuador.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brazil

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Uruguay 0-0 Brazil (4-2 pen.)
Sunday, July 7 at 2am in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	7	9	18
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	7	-1	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Bolivia	7	-6	6
8	Paraguay	6	-2	5
9	Chile	7	-7	5
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Ecuador

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Argentina 1-1 Ecuador (4-2 pen.)
Friday, July 5 at 2am in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	7	9	18
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	7	-1	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Bolivia	7	-6	6
8	Paraguay	6	-2	5
9	Chile	7	-7	5
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 64.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 13.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.77%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Brazil in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Brazil.

Result
Brazil	Draw	Ecuador
64.01% ( -1.46)	22.56% ( 0.81)	13.43% ( 0.64)

Both teams to score 40.09% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.74% (

-1.66)

56.26% (

1.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.7% (

-1.37)

77.3% (

1.36)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.9% (

-1.08)

17.09% (

1.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.71% (

-1.93)

47.29% (

1.93)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.35% (

0.03)

51.64% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.23% (

0.02)

85.77% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Brazil 64.01%

Ecuador 13.43%

Draw 22.55%

Brazil	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 15.59% ( 0.43) 2-0 @ 13.77% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.37) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.24) 4-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.3) 4-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.08) 5-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.16) Other @ 3.09% Total : 64.01%	1-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.3) 0-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.55) 2-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.55%	0-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.37) 1-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.26% Total : 13.43%