Copa America | Quarter-Finals

Jul 5, 2024 at 2am UK

NRG Stadium

Argentina
1 - 1
Ecuador

Martinez (35', 35')
Gonzalez (77'), Gonzalez (77'), Tagliafico (81'), Tagliafico (81')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Rodriguez (90+2', 90+1')
Valencia (30'), Valencia (30'), Caicedo (75'), Caicedo (75')

Argentina win 4-2 on penalties

Reaction

Argentina's Emiliano Martinez reacts during the penalty shootout on July 4, 2024

Copa America 2024: Emiliano Martinez extends penalty record after Lionel Messi miss

Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez maintains his unbeaten penalty shootout record in Thursday's Copa America quarter-final success against Ecuador.

Jul 5, 13:48

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa America clash between Argentina and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Ecuador could line up for Thursday's Copa America clash with Argentina.

Form, Standings, Stats

Argentina

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Argentina 2-0 Peru
Sunday, June 30 at 1am in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Ecuador

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, July 1 at 1am in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 56.78%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 18.79%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.

Result
Argentina	Draw	Ecuador
56.78% ( -0.55)	24.42% ( 0.34)	18.79% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 45.65% (

-0.62)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.18% (

-1.01)

54.82% (

1.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.88% (

-0.84)

76.12% (

0.84)

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.8% (

-0.59)

19.19% (

0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.12% (

-0.98)

50.87% (

0.99)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.5% (

-0.35)

43.5% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.29% (

-0.29)

79.71% (

0.29)

Score Analysis

Argentina 56.78%

Ecuador 18.8%

Draw 24.42%

Argentina	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 13.78% ( 0.28) 2-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.8% Total : 56.78%	1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.66% Total : 24.42%	0-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.76% Total : 18.8%