Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 21, 2024 at 1am UK

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Argentina
2 - 0
Canada

Alvarez (49', 49'), Martinez (88', 88')
De Paul (61'), De Paul (61'), Lo Celso (90+1'), Lo Celso (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kone (81'), Kone (81'), Cornelius (90+4'), Cornelius (90+4')

Reaction

Argentina's Lionel Messi before the game on June 20, 2024 [IMAGO]

Lionel Messi breaks Copa America record in Argentina's win over Canada

Argentina legend Lionel Messi breaks a Copa America record in Thursday's 2-0 win over Canada at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Jun 21, 15:14

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa America clash between Argentina and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Argentina

All competitions

Last Game: Argentina 4-1 Guatemala
Saturday, June 15 at 1am in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Canada

All competitions

Last Game: France 0-0 Canada
Sunday, June 9 at 8.15pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	0	0	0
2	Chile	0	0	0
3	Peru	0	0	0
4	Canada	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Canada had a probability of 16.98%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Canada win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Argentina in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Argentina.

Result
Argentina	Draw	Canada
62.02% ( -0.73)	20.99% ( 0.25)	16.98% ( 0.47)

Both teams to score 52.69% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.33% (

-0.29)

43.67% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.94% (

-0.29)

66.06% (

0.29)

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.47% (

-0.31)

13.53% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.41% (

-0.62)

40.58% (

0.62)

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.93% (

0.4)

39.07% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.21% (

0.37)

75.78% (

-0.37)

Score Analysis

Argentina 62.02%

Canada 16.98%

Draw 20.99%

Argentina	Draw	Canada
1-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.05% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 6.63% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.06) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.01% Total : 62.02%	1-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.99%	0-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.09% Total : 16.98%