CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Nov 18, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Independence Park

Jamaica
1 - 2
Canada

(4-4 on aggregate)

Nicholson (56')
Nicholson (40'), Leigh (69'), Bailey (77')

FT(HT: 0-1)

David (45+1'), Eustaquio (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Jamaica and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Jamaica

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Jamaica
Sunday, November 12 at 12am in International Friendlies

Current League A Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Jamaica	4	5	10
2	Honduras	4	7	7
3	Suriname	4	3	5
4	Cuba	4	-3	5
5	Haiti	4	-1	3
6	Grenada	4	-11	1

Canada

All competitions

Last Game: Japan 4-1 Canada
Friday, October 13 at 11.35am in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Guatemala	3	2	7
2	Canada	3	2	5
3	Guadeloupe	3	2	4
4	Cuba	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 37.65%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (11.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
Jamaica	Draw	Canada
37.65% ( -0.27)	28.38% ( 0.19)	33.96% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 46.53% (

-0.55)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.25% (

-0.68)

59.75% (

0.68)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.95% (

-0.53)

80.05% (

0.53)

Jamaica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.41% (

-0.5)

30.59% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.18% (

-0.6)

66.82% (

0.6)

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.04% (

-0.3)

32.96% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.46% (

-0.34)

69.54% (

0.33)

Score Analysis

Jamaica 37.65%

Canada 33.95%

Draw 28.38%

Jamaica	Draw	Canada
1-0 @ 11.94% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 7.85% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 2.79% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.26% Total : 37.65%	1-1 @ 13.25% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.08% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.38%	0-1 @ 11.18% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.3% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.58% Total : 33.95%