Newtown logo
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 4
Aug 30, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
G.F. Grigg Latham Park

Newtown
2 - 1
Caernarfon

Rushton (3'), Williams (23')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Wynne (55')
Williams (49'), Wynne (73')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Newtown AFC and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newtown AFC

Last Six:
Last Game: Bala Town 3-0 Newtown
Friday, August 26 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Caernarfon Town

Last Six:
Last Game: Caernarfon 5-1 Cardiff MU
Saturday, August 27 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.

Result
Newtown AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
44.57% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)25.51%29.92% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Both teams to score 53.95% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.3%49.69% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.29%71.71%
Newtown AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.74% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)22.26% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.3%55.7%
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.39% (0.0030000000000001 0)30.6% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.15% (0.0020000000000024 0)66.84% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Newtown AFC 44.56%
    Caernarfon Town 29.92%
    Draw 25.5%
Newtown AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
1-0 @ 10.23%
2-1 @ 9.1%
2-0 @ 7.69%
3-1 @ 4.56%
3-0 @ 3.85%
3-2 @ 2.7%
4-1 @ 1.71%
4-0 @ 1.45% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 44.56%
1-1 @ 12.11%
0-0 @ 6.81% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-2 @ 5.39% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.07%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.5%
0-1 @ 8.07%
1-2 @ 7.17%
0-2 @ 4.78% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 2.83%
2-3 @ 2.13%
0-3 @ 1.88%
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 29.92%

Head to Head
Oct 23, 2021 5.15pm
Newtown
1-0
Caernarfon
Mwandwe (45+2')
Roberts (45'), (88'), Jones (90+5')

Hughes (40'), Edwards (42'), John Williams (58'), Jones (88'), Evans (90+1')
Aug 27, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
0-2
Newtown

Edwards (24'), (82'), Jones (84')
Evans (34')
Evans (52'), Williams (85')
(24')
May 29, 2021 12pm
Caernarfon
3-5
Newtown
Kenny (18'), Thomas (59', 73')
Kenny (9'), Cleworth (76'), (84')
Rushton (39' pen.), Mwandwe (44'), Davies (76', 80', 82')
Mills-Evans (45+5'), Williams (90')
Dec 18, 2020 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-1
Newtown
Bradley (34')
Williams (13'), Mendes (59'), Hayes (77'), Bradley (90+4')
Breese (84')
O'Neill (31')
Sep 15, 2020 7.45pm
Newtown
2-3
Caernarfon
Davies (30', 51')
Rushton (16'), Edwards (39'), Phillips (45+2')
Mendes (45+3'), Bradley (59'), Edwards (79')
Thomas (66'), Brookwell (70'), Williams (89')