Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 75.15%. A draw had a probability of 16.75% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 8.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.83%) and 3-0 (10.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%) , while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood.