Champions League
Apr 29, 2026 8.00pm
Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Arsenal

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arsenal win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Atletico Madrid has a probability of 34.07% and a draw has a probability of 23.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win is 2-1 (7.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.74%).

Result

Atletico Madrid 34.07% (+2.47)
Draw 23.76% (-0.17)
Arsenal 42.17% (-2.30)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.33% (+2.83)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.59% (+1.91)
Under 1.5 20.41% (-1.90)
Over 2.5 57.41% (+2.67)
Under 2.5 42.56% (-2.70)
Over 3.5 35.03% (+2.54)
Under 3.5 64.97% (-2.54)
Over 4.5 20.85% (+1.72)
Under 4.5 79.15% (-1.71)

First Half Winner

Atletico Madrid 27.12%
Draw 40.64%
Arsenal 32.24%

Team To Score First

Atletico Madrid 46.85% (+0.33)
No Goal 5.18% (-0.69)
Arsenal 47.97% (+0.36)

Corners

Over 8 51.98%
Equal 8 11.28%
Under 8 36.74%
Over 9 40.97%
Equal 9 11%
Under 9 48.02%
Over 10.5 31.07%
Under 10.5 68.93%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 37.96% (+3.54)
Under 1.5 62.04% (-3.53)
Over 2.5 15.99% (+2.06)
Under 2.5 84.01% (-2.05)
Over 3.5 5.41% (+0.83)
Under 3.5 94.59% (-0.83)

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5 74.96% (-0.50)
Under 0.5 25.04% (+0.50)
Over 1.5 44.96% (-0.15)
Under 1.5 55.04% (+0.15)
Over 2.5 20.67% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 79.33% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 7.9% (+0.10)
Under 3.5 92.1% (-0.10)

Score analysis

Atletico Madrid 34.06%
Draw 23.76%
Arsenal 42.18%
Atletico Madrid
2-1 @ 7.65% (+0.50)
1-0 @ 7.23% (-0.13)
2-0 @ 5% (+0.29)
3-1 @ 3.61% (+0.42)
3-2 @ 2.94% (+0.36)
3-0 @ 2.47% (+0.25)
Other @ 5.16% (+0.79)
Total : 34.06%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.74% (-0.17)
2-2 @ 6.03% (+0.45)
0-0 @ 5.18% (-0.69)
3-3 @ 1.56% (+0.20)
Other @ 0.25% (+0.05)
Total : 23.76%
Arsenal
1-2 @ 8.88% (-0.12)
0-1 @ 8% (-1.09)
0-2 @ 6.44% (-0.88)
1-3 @ 4.55% (-0.04)
0-3 @ 3.37% (-0.48)
2-3 @ 3.29% (+0.27)
Other @ 7.65% (+0.06)
Total : 42.18%

Head to Head

Champions League
Oct 21, 2025 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
LIVE
Pre-Season Friendlies
Jul 26, 2018 12.35pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT National Stadium
  • Emile Smith Rowe 47' goal
  • Calum Chambers 81' yellowcard
  • goal Luciano Vietto 41'
Europa League
May 3, 2018 8.05pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Wanda Metropolitano (Madrid)
  • Diego Costa 45' goal
  • Gabi 52' yellowcard
  • Saul Niguez 71' yellowcard
  • Diego Costa 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jack Wilshere 42'
  • yellowcard Nacho Monreal 59'
  • yellowcard Shkodran Mustafi 78'

Build-up

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