/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fatllog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fbarlog.png)
-
Ademola Lookman
31'
-
Álex Baena
66'
-
Nico González
66'
-
Alexander Sørloth
76'
-
Johnny Cardoso
89'
-
89'
-
Lamine Yamal
4'
-
Ferran Torres
24'
-
Robert Lewandowski
68'
-
Marcus Rashford
68'
-
Frenkie de Jong
81'
-
Ronald Araujo
89'
-
Roony Bardghji
89'
-
Roony Bardghji
90'
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
Reaction
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F04%2Ficonsport-364092-0159-1-69de97c41a0b3381661295.jpg)
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F04%2Fimago1076089064-1-1-69deb47d8a853772310861.jpg)
The match
Team News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F04%2Fraphinha-10-69d2bf7ab3fc8723355811.jpg)
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F03%2Ficonsport-361551-0102-1-69b560866f7b6508942731.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F04%2Ficonsport-363650-0022-1-69db71fd540f5448830062.jpg)
Injuries & Suspensions
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 42%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.86%) and 0-2 (5.25%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 (7.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
Result
Atletico Madrid
35.65%
▼
(-0.08)
Draw
22.35%
▼
(-0.03)
Barcelona
42%
▲
(+0.11)
Both Teams to Score:
63.99%
Goals
Over 1.5
85.25%
Under 1.5
14.75%
Over 2.5
66.59%
Under 2.5
33.37%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 3.5
45.69%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 3.5
54.31%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 4.5
29.63%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 4.5
70.37%
▼
(-0.04)
First Half Winner
Atletico Madrid
33.52%
Draw
37.67%
Barcelona
28.82%
Team To Score First
Atletico Madrid
50.34%
No Goal
3.43%
Barcelona
46.23%
Corners
Over 8
58.57%
Equal 8
10.48%
Under 8
30.94%
Over 9
47.82%
Equal 9
10.75%
Under 9
41.43%
Over 10.5
37.62%
Under 10.5
62.38%
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 1.5
44.13%
▼
(-0.09)
Under 1.5
55.87%
▲
(+0.09)
Over 2.5
21.53%
▼
(-0.06)
Under 2.5
78.47%
▲
(+0.07)
Over 3.5
8.55%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 3.5
91.45%
▲
(+0.02)
Barcelona Goals
Over 0.5
76.49%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 0.5
23.51%
▼
(-0.05)
Over 1.5
49.8%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 1.5
50.2%
▼
(-0.08)
Over 2.5
25.71%
▲
(+0.09)
Under 2.5
74.29%
▼
(-0.08)
Over 3.5
11.13%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 3.5
88.87%
▼
(-0.07)
Score analysis
Atletico Madrid
35.65%
Draw
22.35%
Barcelona
42.02%
Atletico Madrid
2-1
@
7.4%
▼
(-0.02)
1-0 @ 5.48%
3-1 @ 4.28% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 4.25%
3-2 @ 3.87%
3-0 @ 2.38% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 7.99% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 35.65%
1-0 @ 5.48%
3-1 @ 4.28% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 4.25%
3-2 @ 3.87%
3-0 @ 2.38% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 7.99% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 35.65%
Draw
1-1
@
9.15%
▼
(-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.76% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 3.43%
3-3 @ 2.45% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 22.35%
2-2 @ 6.76% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 3.43%
3-3 @ 2.45% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 22.35%
Barcelona
1-2
@
8.21%
0-1 @ 5.86% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.25% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 5.03% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 4.19%
0-3 @ 2.91%
Other @ 10.57% ▲ (+0.08)
Total : 42.02%
0-1 @ 5.86% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.25% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 5.03% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 4.19%
0-3 @ 2.91%
Other @ 10.57% ▲ (+0.08)
Total : 42.02%
Head to Head
-
Fermín López
46'
-
Gavi
46'
-
Ferran Torres
73'
-
Ronald Araujo
73'
-
Alejandro Balde
86'
-
Marc Pubill
31'
-
Marc Pubill
32'
-
Julián Alvarez
45'
-
Álex Baena
60'
-
Alexander Sørloth
60'
-
Alexander Sørloth
70'
-
Thiago Almada
80'
-
Nico González
80'
-
Giuliano Simeone
39'
-
Matteo Ruggeri
46'
-
José María Giménez
61'
-
Alexander Sørloth
61'
-
Javi Morcillo
61'
-
Taufik Seidu
68'
-
Marc Bernal
40'
-
Marcus Rashford
42'
-
Ferran Torres
46'
-
46'
-
Jules Koundé
62'
-
Gavi
78'
-
Gavi
79'
-
Robert Lewandowski
79'
-
Robert Lewandowski
87'
-
Eric Garcia
6'
-
Eric García
7'
-
Antoine Griezmann
14'
-
Ademola Lookman
33'
-
Julian Alvarez
45'+2'
-
Julián Alvarez
45'+2'
-
Alexander Sorloth
68'
-
Alex Baena
68'
-
Álex Baena
68'
-
Alexander Sørloth
68'
-
Thiago Almada
73'
-
Robin Le Normand
90'
-
Robert Lewandowski
37'
-
Ronald Araujo
77'
-
Joao Cancelo
77'
-
João Cancelo
77'
-
Gerard Martin Langreo
87'
-
Gerard Martín
87'
-
Gerard Martin Langreo
88'
Form Data
Build-up
How to watch
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F11%2Fimago1069706098-692b2068ec3bd907675264.jpg)
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F03%2Fsm-azzuu-yamal-69af11bd3ae70124213211.jpg)
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F01%2Fjoan-gosa-barcelona-manager-hansi-flick-on-january-25-2026-69765c19d7911757713236.jpg)