Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 60.02%. A draw had a probability of 20.82% and a win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 19.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.22%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%) , while for a Atletico Madrid win it was 1-2 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.