Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.51% and a win for Real Oviedo had a probability of 20.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.51%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%) , while for a Real Oviedo win it was 1-0 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.