La Liga Gameweek 26
Feb 28, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Real Oviedo vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Oviedo

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 1.00pm
Real Sociedad 3 - 3 Real Oviedo
Goals scored
14
Top scorer
Federico Viñas

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 8.00pm
Atletico 4 - 2 Espanyol
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Alexander Sørloth

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw has a probability of 25.51% and a win for Real Oviedo has a probability of 20.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win is 0-1 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.51%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.83%) , while for a Real Oviedo win it is 1-0 (7.27%).

Result

Real Oviedo 20.44% (+0.21)
Draw 25.51% (+0.11)
Atletico Madrid 54.02% (-0.30)

Both Teams to Score: 

47% (-0.14)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.39% (-0.21)
Under 1.5 29.61% (+0.22)
Over 2.5 44.87% (-0.24)
Under 2.5 55.13% (+0.24)
Over 3.5 23.64% (-0.22)
Under 3.5 76.36% (+0.21)
Over 4.5 12.87% (-0.17)
Under 4.5 87.13% (+0.18)

First Half Winner

Real Oviedo 18.55%
Draw 42.87%
Atletico Madrid 38.58%

Team To Score First

Real Oviedo 30.32% (-0.04)
No Goal 8.82% (+0.09)
Atletico Madrid 60.86% (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 56.38% (+0.04)
Equal 8 12.17% (+0.09)
Under 8 31.45% (-0.13)
Over 9 44.09% (-0.06)
Equal 9 12.29% (+0.11)
Under 9 43.62% (-0.04)
Over 10.5 32.78% (-0.16)
Under 10.5 67.22% (+0.16)

Real Oviedo Goals

Over 1.5 20.55% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 79.45% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 5.38% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 94.62% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.21%
Under 3.5 98.79%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 78.6% (-0.28)
Under 0.5 21.4% (+0.27)
Over 1.5 46.54% (-0.37)
Under 1.5 53.46% (+0.37)
Over 2.5 21.06% (-0.31)
Under 2.5 78.94% (+0.30)
Over 3.5 7.4% (-0.15)
Under 3.5 92.6% (+0.15)

Score analysis

Real Oviedo 20.44%
Draw 25.5%
Atletico Madrid 54.01%
Real Oviedo
1-0 @ 7.27% (+0.08)
2-1 @ 5.24% (+0.04)
2-0 @ 3.19% (+0.05)
3-1 @ 1.52% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 1.15%
Other @ 1.18% (+0.02)
Total : 20.44%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.83% (+0.05)
0-0 @ 8.82% (+0.09)
2-2 @ 4.21%
Other @ 0.03% (-0.02)
Total : 25.5%
Atletico Madrid
0-1 @ 13.47% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 10.51% (-0.05)
1-2 @ 9.61% (-0.04)
0-3 @ 5.49% (-0.06)
1-3 @ 5.03% (-0.06)
2-3 @ 2.53% (-0.02)
Other @ 7.37% (-0.14)
Total : 54.01%

Head to Head

La Liga
Nov 29, 2025 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Alexander Sorloth 16' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 26' goal
  • yellowcard David Carmo 54'
Copa del Rey
Jan 4, 2023 7.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
  • goal Marcos Llorente 24'
  • goal Pablo Barrios 83'