La Liga Gameweek 24
Feb 15, 2026 3.15pm
Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Feb 7, 2026 1.00pm
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 Real Oviedo
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Nobel Mendy

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Feb 8, 2026 5.30pm
Atletico 0 - 1 Betis
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Alexander Sorloth

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47.4%. A draw has a probability of 27.11% and a win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 25.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.12%) and 1-2 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.43%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it is 1-0 (8.3%).

Result

Rayo Vallecano 25.49% (+0.12)
Draw 27.11% (-0.06)
Atletico Madrid 47.4% (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

42.44% (+0.34)

Goals

Over 1.5 65.31% (+0.22)
Under 1.5 34.69% (-0.22)
Over 2.5 39.59% (+0.19)
Under 2.5 60.41% (-0.19)
Over 3.5 19.82% (+0.13)
Under 3.5 80.17% (-0.15)
Over 4.5 10.43% (+0.09)
Under 4.5 89.57% (-0.09)

First Half Winner

Rayo Vallecano 25.72% (+0.06)
Draw 44.35% (-0.04)
Atletico Madrid 29.93% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Rayo Vallecano 42.24% (+0.13)
No Goal 11.4% (-0.16)
Atletico Madrid 46.36% (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 58.86% (-0.04)
Equal 8 11.59% (-0.01)
Under 8 29.55% (+0.04)
Over 9 46.94% (-0.02)
Equal 9 11.92% (-0.01)
Under 9 41.14% (+0.04)
Over 10.5 35.73%
Under 10.5 64.27%

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 1.5 23.3% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 76.7% (-0.12)
Over 2.5 7.83% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 92.17% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.1% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 97.9% (-0.01)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 72.49% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 27.51% (-0.05)
Over 1.5 38.19% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 61.81% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 14.74% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 85.26% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 4.47% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 95.53% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Rayo Vallecano 25.49%
Draw 27.12%
Atletico Madrid 47.39%
Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 8.3% (+0.06)
2-1 @ 5.77% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 4.15% (+0.04)
3-1 @ 2.11% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 1.57% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 1.5%
Other @ 2.09% (+0.01)
Total : 25.49%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.43% (+0.09)
0-0 @ 11.4% (-0.16)
2-2 @ 3.73% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 27.12%
Atletico Madrid
0-1 @ 14.99% (-0.15)
0-2 @ 10.12% (-0.10)
1-2 @ 8.1% (+0.07)
0-3 @ 4.32% (-0.05)
1-3 @ 3.58% (+0.06)
2-3 @ 1.82% (+0.04)
Other @ 4.46% (+0.05)
Total : 47.39%

Head to Head

La Liga
Sep 24, 2025 8.30pm
3
2
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 33
Apr 24, 2025 8.30pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
  • Alexander Sorloth 3' goal
  • Conor Gallagher 45' goal
  • Julian Alvarez 77' goal
  • yellowcard Andrei Ratiu 66'
  • yellowcard Augusto Batalla 79'
La Liga Gameweek 6
Sep 22, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Isi 35' goal
  • goal Conor Gallagher 49'
La Liga Gameweek 20
Jan 31, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
  • Reinildo Mandava 35' goal
  • Memphis Depay 90' goal
  • Diego Simeone 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kike Perez 38'
  • goal Alvaro Garcia 42'
  • yellowcard Isi 60'
  • redcard Francisco 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Pep Chavarria 90'+3'
La Liga Gameweek 3
Aug 28, 2023 8.30pm
0
7
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Isi 39' yellowcard
  • Florian Lejeune 65' yellowcard
  • Alfonso Espino 81' yellowcard
  • Ivan Balliu 88' yellowcard
  • goal Antoine Griezmann 2'
  • goal Memphis Depay 16'
  • goal Nahuel Molina 36'
  • yellowcard Pablo Barrios 49'
  • goal Alvaro Morata 73'
  • yellowcard Antoine Griezmann 75'
  • goal Angel Correa 79'
  • goal Alvaro Morata 84'
  • goal Marcos Llorente 86'
  • yellowcard Mario Hermoso 87'
La Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 9, 2023 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Fran Garcia 85' goal
  • goal Nahuel Molina 22'
  • goal Mario Hermoso 24'