Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.82%. A draw had a probability of 26.69% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.24%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (7.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.