La Liga
Feb 15, 2026 3.15pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Municipal de Butarque
  • Fran Pérez 40' goal
  • Óscar Valentín 45' goal
  • Pedro Díaz 64' yellowcard
  • Álvaro García 64' yellowcard
  • Jozhua Vertrouwd 64' yellowcard
  • Randy Nteka 74' yellowcard
  • Nobel Mendy 76' goal
  • Unai López 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Obed Vargas 56'
  • yellowcard Julián Alvarez 56'
  • yellowcard Robin Le Normand 56'
  • yellowcard Marcos Llorente 63'
  • yellowcard Ademola Lookman 63'

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Feb 1, 2026 1.00pm
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Goals scored
21
Top scorer
Jorge de Frutos

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Feb 8, 2026 5.30pm
Atletico 0 - 1 Betis
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Alexander Sørloth

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.82%. A draw had a probability of 26.69% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.24%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (7.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result

Rayo Vallecano 24.5% (-0.97)
Draw 26.69% (-0.42)
Atletico Madrid 48.82% (+1.40)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.88% (+2.49)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.08% (+2.77)
Under 1.5 31.92% (-2.76)
Over 2.5 42.55% (+2.91)
Under 2.5 57.45% (-2.91)
Over 3.5 21.3% (+1.52)
Under 3.5 78.7% (-1.52)
Over 4.5 11.24% (+0.84)
Under 4.5 88.76% (-0.84)

First Half Winner

Rayo Vallecano 24.5% (-1.15)
Draw 44.35% (-0.04)
Atletico Madrid 31.16% (+1.18)

Team To Score First

Rayo Vallecano 41.54% (-0.54)
No Goal 10.26% (-1.15)
Atletico Madrid 48.2% (+1.68)

Corners

Over 8 59.32% (+0.42)
Equal 8 11.55% (-0.03)
Under 8 29.13% (-0.38)
Over 9 47.4% (+0.41)
Equal 9 11.92%
Under 9 40.68% (-0.42)
Over 10.5 36.14% (+0.36)
Under 10.5 63.86% (-0.36)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 1.5 23.61% (+0.34)
Under 1.5 76.39% (-0.35)
Over 2.5 7.58% (-0.25)
Under 2.5 92.42% (+0.25)
Over 3.5 1.97% (-0.12)
Under 3.5 98.03% (+0.11)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 74.56% (+2.05)
Under 0.5 25.44% (-2.05)
Over 1.5 41.26% (+3.04)
Under 1.5 58.74% (-3.04)
Over 2.5 16.61% (+1.87)
Under 2.5 83.39% (-1.88)
Over 3.5 5.2% (+0.74)
Under 3.5 94.8% (-0.74)

Score analysis

Rayo Vallecano 24.49%
Draw 26.7%
Atletico Madrid 48.8%
Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 7.85% (-0.44)
2-1 @ 6% (+0.22)
2-0 @ 3.72% (-0.41)
3-1 @ 1.92% (-0.19)
3-0 @ 1.68% (+0.09)
3-2 @ 1.4% (-0.11)
Other @ 1.92% (-0.15)
Total : 24.49%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.58% (+0.17)
0-0 @ 10.26% (-1.15)
2-2 @ 4.2% (+0.48)
Other @ 0.05% (+0.04)
Total : 26.7%
Atletico Madrid
0-1 @ 13.8% (-1.18)
0-2 @ 10.24% (+0.11)
1-2 @ 8.81% (+0.68)
0-3 @ 4.75% (+0.41)
1-3 @ 3.94% (+0.38)
2-3 @ 2.11% (+0.31)
Other @ 5.15% (+0.70)
Total : 48.8%

Head to Head

La Liga
Sep 24, 2025 8.30pm
3
2
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 33
Apr 24, 2025 8.30pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
  • Alexander Sorloth 3' goal
  • Conor Gallagher 45' goal
  • Julian Alvarez 77' goal
  • yellowcard Andrei Ratiu 66'
  • yellowcard Augusto Batalla 79'
La Liga Gameweek 6
Sep 22, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Isi 35' goal
  • goal Conor Gallagher 49'
La Liga Gameweek 20
Jan 31, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
  • Reinildo Mandava 35' goal
  • Memphis Depay 90' goal
  • Diego Simeone 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kike Perez 38'
  • goal Alvaro Garcia 42'
  • yellowcard Isi 60'
  • redcard Francisco 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Pep Chavarria 90'+3'
La Liga Gameweek 3
Aug 28, 2023 8.30pm
0
7
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Isi 39' yellowcard
  • Florian Lejeune 65' yellowcard
  • Alfonso Espino 81' yellowcard
  • Ivan Balliu 88' yellowcard
  • goal Antoine Griezmann 2'
  • goal Memphis Depay 16'
  • goal Nahuel Molina 36'
  • yellowcard Pablo Barrios 49'
  • goal Alvaro Morata 73'
  • yellowcard Antoine Griezmann 75'
  • goal Angel Correa 79'
  • goal Alvaro Morata 84'
  • goal Marcos Llorente 86'
  • yellowcard Mario Hermoso 87'
La Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 9, 2023 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Fran Garcia 85' goal
  • goal Nahuel Molina 22'
  • goal Mario Hermoso 24'