Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47.4%. A draw has a probability of 27.11% and a win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 25.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.12%) and 1-2 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.43%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it is 1-0 (8.3%).