Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 71.47%. A draw had a probability of 17.49% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 11.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.02%) and 3-0 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (3.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.