La Liga Gameweek 26
Feb 28, 2026 1.00pm
Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 3.15pm
Betis 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Goals scored
21
Top scorer
Jorge de Frutos

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Last game
Feb 20, 2026 8.00pm
Athletic Bilbao 2 - 1 Elche
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Gorka Guruzeta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 42.59%. A win for Athletic Bilbao has a probability of 29.2% and a draw has a probability of 28.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win is 0-1 (9.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.95%).

Result

Rayo Vallecano 42.59% (-0.14)
Draw 28.22% (+0.08)
Athletic Bilbao 29.2% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.78% (-0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 67.7% (-0.13)
Under 1.5 32.3% (+0.13)
Over 2.5 42.41% (-0.19)
Under 2.5 57.59% (+0.19)
Over 3.5 21.73% (-0.17)
Under 3.5 78.27% (+0.18)
Over 4.5 11.32% (-0.09)
Under 4.5 88.68% (+0.10)

First Half Winner

Rayo Vallecano 37.17% (-0.02)
Draw 40.78% (+0.03)
Athletic Bilbao 22.05%

Team To Score First

Rayo Vallecano 53.25% (+0.05)
No Goal 10.11% (+0.04)
Athletic Bilbao 36.64% (-0.09)

Corners

Over 8 58.14% (+0.15)
Equal 8 11.41% (+0.08)
Under 8 30.45% (-0.22)
Over 9 46.49% (+0.07)
Equal 9 11.65% (+0.09)
Under 9 41.86% (-0.15)
Over 10.5 35.56% (-0.02)
Under 10.5 64.44% (+0.02)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 1.5 36.83% (-0.25)
Under 1.5 63.17% (+0.25)
Over 2.5 15.19% (-0.12)
Under 2.5 84.81% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 4.65% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 95.35% (+0.04)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5 61.82% (-0.05)
Under 0.5 38.18% (+0.05)
Over 1.5 26.91% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 73.09% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 8.33% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 91.67% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 2.14% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 97.86% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Rayo Vallecano 42.59%
Draw 28.21%
Athletic Bilbao 29.19%
Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 12.46% (+0.03)
2-1 @ 8.42% (-0.07)
2-0 @ 7.31% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.82% (-0.06)
3-0 @ 3.69% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.29% (-0.03)
Other @ 4.6% (-0.04)
Total : 42.59%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.95% (+0.09)
0-0 @ 10.11% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 4.36% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.05% (-0.01)
Total : 28.21%
Athletic Bilbao
0-1 @ 9.72% (+0.06)
1-2 @ 6.91% (+0.05)
0-2 @ 5.02% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.23%
0-3 @ 1.67%
2-3 @ 1.55% (-0.02)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 29.19%

Head to Head

La Liga
Aug 25, 2025 6.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 31
Apr 13, 2025 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 1
FT San Mames Barria
  • Alvaro Djalo 12' yellowcard
  • Daniel Vivian 36' yellowcard
  • Oihan Sancet 58' goal
  • Nico Williams 80' goal
  • Adama Boiro Boiro 84' yellowcard
  • Inaki Williams 87' yellowcard
  • Oihan Sancet 90'+4' goal
  • goal Pathe Ciss 37'
  • yellowcard Pedro Diaz 50'
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 57'
  • yellowcard Unai Lopez 75'
La Liga Gameweek 15
Dec 1, 2024 5.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Randy Nteka 14' goal
  • Pathe Ciss 69' yellowcard
  • Gerard Gumbau 76' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Garcia 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Oihan Sancet 65'
  • goal Oihan Sancet 78'
La Liga Gameweek 38
May 25, 2024 5.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Miguel Crespo 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 44'
  • goal Nico Williams 67'
La Liga Gameweek 15
Dec 2, 2023 3.15pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT San Mames Barria
  • Daniel Vivian 6' yellowcard
  • Gorka Guruzeta 23' goal
  • Alfonso Espino 47' goal
  • Inaki Williams 64' goal
  • Nico Williams 68' goal
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 32'
  • yellowcard Radamel Falcao 87'
La Liga Gameweek 24
Mar 5, 2023 5.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas