Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 51.82%. A draw had a probability of 26.25% and a win for Elche had a probability of 21.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.22%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%) , while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.