Champions League
Jan 28, 2026 8.00pm
2
3
HT : 2 1
FT San Mamés Barria
  • Oihan Sancet 3' goal
  • Gorka Guruzeta 28' goal
  • Alex Berenguer 50' yellowcard
  • Álex Berenguer 50' yellowcard
  • Selton Sued Sánchez Camilo 66' yellowcard
  • Mikel Vesga 66' yellowcard
  • Selton Sánchez 66' yellowcard
  • Mikel Vesga 67' yellowcard
  • Nico Serrano 81' yellowcard
  • Gorka Guruzeta 81' yellowcard
  • Asier Hierro Campo 81' yellowcard
  • Asier Hierro 81' yellowcard
  • goal Ousmane Diomande 12'
  • yellowcard Matheus Reis 26'
  • yellowcard Hidemasa Morita 54'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Quaresma 54'
  • yellowcard Pedro Goncalves 54'
  • yellowcard Pedro Gonçalves 54'
  • goal Francisco Trincao 62'
  • goal Francisco Trincão 62'
  • yellowcard Alisson de Almeida Santos 87'
  • yellowcard Alisson Santos 87'
  • goal Alisson de Almeida Santos 90'+4'
  • goal Alisson Santos 90'+4'

Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
Atalanta 2 - 3 Athletic Bilbao

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 8.00pm
Sporting Lisbon 2 - 1 PSG

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.82%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.58%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (6.58%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.

Result

Athletic Bilbao 27.33%
Draw 21.85%
Sporting Lisbon 50.82%

Both Teams to Score: 

54.37%

Goals

Over 1.5 78.17% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 21.83% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 56.13% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 43.87% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 33.22% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 66.78% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 19.67% (+0.03)
Under 4.5 80.33% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Athletic Bilbao 19.2%
Draw 37.56%
Sporting Lisbon 43.24%

Team To Score First

Athletic Bilbao 35.45%
No Goal 5.66% (-0.01)
Sporting Lisbon 58.89% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 52.41%
Equal 8 10.65%
Under 8 36.94%
Over 9 41.95%
Equal 9 10.46%
Under 9 47.59%
Over 10.5 32.44%
Under 10.5 67.56%

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 1.5 30.45% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 69.55% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 11.31%
Under 2.5 88.69%
Over 3.5 3.57%
Under 3.5 96.43%

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5 78.34%
Under 0.5 21.66%
Over 1.5 49.56% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 50.44% (-0.03)
Over 2.5 24.25% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 75.75% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 9.36%
Under 3.5 90.64%

Score analysis

Athletic Bilbao 27.32%
Draw 21.85%
Sporting Lisbon 50.82%
Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 6.58%
2-1 @ 6.35%
2-0 @ 4.17%
3-1 @ 2.82% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.16% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 1.7%
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 27.32%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.03%
0-0 @ 5.66% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.07%
3-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 0.03%
Total : 21.85%
Sporting Lisbon
1-2 @ 10.24%
0-1 @ 9.58% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 7.84% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 5.65%
0-3 @ 4.63% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 3.55% (+0.01)
Other @ 9.33%
Total : 50.82%

Head to Head

Club Friendlies 3
Jul 27, 2024 7.30pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Jose Alvalade
  • Pedro Goncalves 11' goal
  • Viktor Gyokeres 25' yellowcard
  • Marcus Edwards 80' goal
  • Francisco Trincao 83' goal
  • yellowcard Mikel Jauregizar 16'