Champions League Gameweek 8
Jan 28, 2026 8.00pm
San Mamés Barria

Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
Atalanta 2 - 3 Athletic Bilbao

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 8.00pm
Sporting Lisbon 2 - 1 PSG

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.71%. A win for Athletic Bilbao has a probability of 27.44% and a draw has a probability of 21.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win is 1-2 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (9.59%) and 0-2 (7.85%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win is 1-0 (6.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.05%).

Result

Athletic Bilbao 27.44% (-0.06)
Draw 21.85% (+0.04)
Sporting Lisbon 50.71% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.3% (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.08% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 21.92% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 55.97% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 44.03% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 33.1% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 66.9% (+0.07)
Over 4.5 19.57% (-0.06)
Under 4.5 80.43% (+0.07)

First Half Winner

Athletic Bilbao 19.25%
Draw 37.48%
Sporting Lisbon 43.27%

Team To Score First

Athletic Bilbao 35.44% (-0.02)
No Goal 5.7% (+0.03)
Sporting Lisbon 58.86% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 52.51%
Equal 8 10.65%
Under 8 36.83%
Over 9 42.04%
Equal 9 10.47%
Under 9 47.49%
Over 10.5 32.52%
Under 10.5 67.48%

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 1.5 30.42% (-0.12)
Under 1.5 69.58% (+0.13)
Over 2.5 11.29% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 88.71% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 3.55% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 96.45% (+0.05)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5 78.22% (+0.07)
Under 0.5 21.78% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 49.39% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 50.61% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 24.11%
Under 2.5 75.89%
Over 3.5 9.31%
Under 3.5 90.69%

Score analysis

Athletic Bilbao 27.44%
Draw 21.85%
Sporting Lisbon 50.72%
Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 6.64% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 6.35% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 4.21%
3-1 @ 2.84% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.16% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 1.7% (-0.03)
Other @ 3.54% (-0.05)
Total : 27.44%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.05% (+0.05)
0-0 @ 5.7% (+0.03)
2-2 @ 5.05% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.01% (-0.01)
Total : 21.85%
Sporting Lisbon
1-2 @ 10.22%
0-1 @ 9.59% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 7.85% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 5.64% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 4.6%
2-3 @ 3.52%
Other @ 9.3% (+0.02)
Total : 50.72%

Head to Head

Club Friendlies 3
Jul 27, 2024 7.30pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Jose Alvalade
  • Pedro Goncalves 11' goal
  • Viktor Gyokeres 25' yellowcard
  • Marcus Edwards 80' goal
  • Francisco Trincao 83' goal
  • yellowcard Mikel Jauregizar 16'