Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 82.01%. A draw had a probability of 11.98% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 6.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.52%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.67%) , while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.