Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 43.8%. A draw had a probability of 28.77% and a win for Samsunspor had a probability of 27.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%) , while for a Samsunspor win it was 0-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.