Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 37.32%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 36.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (5.95%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-0 (9.02%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.