Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 59.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.55% and a win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 17.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%) , while for a Atletico Madrid win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.