Champions League
May 5, 2026 8.00pm
Emirates Stadium

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Arsenal

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Apr 29, 2026 8.00pm
Atletico 1 - 1 Arsenal

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Apr 29, 2026 8.00pm
Atletico 1 - 1 Arsenal

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arsenal win with a probability of 60.23%. A draw has a probability of 22.24% and a win for Atletico Madrid has a probability of 17.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.33%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.34%) , while for a Atletico Madrid win it is 0-1 (5.8%).

Result

Arsenal 60.23% (-0.58)
Draw 22.24% (+0.10)
Atletico Madrid 17.53% (+0.48)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.36% (-0.40)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.62% (-0.32)
Under 1.5 25.38% (+0.33)
Over 2.5 50.53% (-0.57)
Under 2.5 49.47% (+0.57)
Over 3.5 28.57% (-0.67)
Under 3.5 71.43% (+0.67)
Over 4.5 17.66% (-0.59)
Under 4.5 82.34% (+0.60)

First Half Winner

Arsenal 45.61%
Draw 37.09%
Atletico Madrid 17.3%

Team To Score First

Arsenal 64.48% (-0.05)
No Goal 6.91% (+0.08)
Atletico Madrid 28.61% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 60.54%
Equal 8 11.08%
Under 8 28.38%
Over 9 49.01%
Equal 9 11.53%
Under 9 39.46%
Over 10.5 37.99%
Under 10.5 62.01%

Arsenal Goals

Over 1.5 53.81% (-0.74)
Under 1.5 46.19% (+0.74)
Over 2.5 27.25% (-0.81)
Under 2.5 72.75% (+0.80)
Over 3.5 11.33% (-0.57)
Under 3.5 88.67% (+0.57)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 50.94% (+0.24)
Under 0.5 49.06% (-0.24)
Over 1.5 19.45% (+0.24)
Under 1.5 80.55% (-0.25)
Over 2.5 5.7% (+0.16)
Under 2.5 94.3% (-0.16)
Over 3.5 1.63% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 98.37% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Arsenal 60.21%
Draw 22.24%
Atletico Madrid 17.53%
Arsenal
1-0 @ 12.65% (+0.14)
2-0 @ 11.33% (+0.10)
2-1 @ 9.87% (-0.05)
3-0 @ 6.91% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.48% (-0.13)
3-2 @ 2.73% (-0.09)
Other @ 11.24% (-0.55)
Total : 60.21%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.34% (+0.08)
0-0 @ 6.91% (+0.08)
2-2 @ 4.1% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.09% (-0.02)
Total : 22.24%
Atletico Madrid
0-1 @ 5.8% (+0.10)
1-2 @ 4.48% (+0.10)
0-2 @ 2.44% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 1.32% (+0.07)
2-3 @ 1.26% (+0.02)
Other @ 1.54% (+0.07)
Total : 17.53%

Head to Head

Champions League
Apr 29, 2026 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Riyadh Air Metropolitano
  • Robin Le Normand 46' yellowcard
  • Julián Alvarez 56' yellowcard
  • Julián Alvarez 57' yellowcard
  • Álex Baena 77' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Molina 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Viktor Gyökeres 44'
  • yellowcard Eberechi Eze 58'
  • yellowcard Leandro Trossard 68'
  • yellowcard Bukayo Saka 68'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Jesus 69'
  • yellowcard Cristhian Mosquera 86'
  • yellowcard Cristhian Mosquera 87'
Champions League
Oct 21, 2025 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
LIVE
Pre-Season Friendlies
Jul 26, 2018 12.35pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT National Stadium
  • Emile Smith Rowe 47' goal
  • Calum Chambers 81' yellowcard
  • goal Luciano Vietto 41'
Europa League
May 3, 2018 8.05pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Wanda Metropolitano (Madrid)
  • Diego Costa 45' goal
  • Gabi 52' yellowcard
  • Saul Niguez 71' yellowcard
  • Diego Costa 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jack Wilshere 42'
  • yellowcard Nacho Monreal 59'
  • yellowcard Shkodran Mustafi 78'

Build-up

Injuries & Suspensions