Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.07%). The likeliest Valencia win was 1-0 (8.31%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.