UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League D

Sep 5, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle

San Marino
1 - 0
Liechtenstein

Sensoli (53')
Cevoli (51'), Battistini (87'), Rossi (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Luque Notaro (30')
Hasler (10'), Wieser (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between San Marino and Liechtenstein, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Marino

All competitions

Last Game: San Marino 1-4 Cyprus
Tuesday, June 11 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	10	11	22
2	Denmark	10	9	22
3	Finland	10	8	18
4	Kazakhstan	10	4	18
5	Northern Ireland	10	-4	9
6	San Marino	10	-28	0

Liechtenstein

All competitions

Last Game: Romania 0-0 Liechtenstein
Friday, June 7 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	10	34	30
2	Slovakia	10	9	22
3	Luxembourg	10	-6	17
4	Iceland	10	1	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	10	-11	9
6	Liechtenstein	10	-27	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Marino win with a probability of 41.83%. A win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Marino win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Liechtenstein win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for San Marino in this match.

Result
San Marino	Draw	Liechtenstein
41.83% ( -0.27)	25.9% ( -0.12)	32.26% ( 0.39)

Both teams to score 53.74% (

0.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.55% (

0.62)

50.44% (

-0.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.62% (

0.55)

72.38% (

-0.55)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.1% (

0.14)

23.9% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.89% (

0.2)

58.11% (

-0.2)

Liechtenstein Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.62% (

0.57)

29.38% (

-0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.63% (

0.69)

65.37% (

-0.69)

Score Analysis

San Marino 41.83%

Liechtenstein 32.26%

Draw 25.9%

San Marino	Draw	Liechtenstein
1-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.92% Total : 41.83%	1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.9%	0-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.48% Total : 32.26%