Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 45.36%. A win for Needham Market had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.8%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest Needham Market win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.

Result
Alfreton Town	Draw	Needham Market
45.36% ( 0.02)	27.3%	27.33% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 47.02% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.1% (

-0.02)

57.9% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.39% (

-0.01)

78.61% (

0.01)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.54% (

25.46% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.71% (

0.01)

60.29% (

-0.01)

Needham Market Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.08% (

-0.03)

36.92% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.29% (

-0.03)

73.7% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Alfreton Town 45.36%

Needham Market 27.33%

Draw 27.3%

Alfreton Town	Draw	Needham Market
1-0 @ 12.85% 2-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.01% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.37% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.37% Other @ 2.21% Total : 45.36%	1-1 @ 12.81% 0-0 @ 9.4% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.3%	0-1 @ 9.37% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.38% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.67% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0) Other @ 1.8% Total : 27.33%