National League North | Gameweek 23
Dec 26, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Silverlands
Alfreton Town

Buxton
3 - 2
Alfreton

Burton (18'), Elliott (28'), Sault (45')
Grant (70')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Salmon (10'), Hunt (35')
Lund (40'), Matwasa (79')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Buxton and Alfreton Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Buxton

All competitions
Last Game: Warrington Town 1-0 Buxton
Saturday, December 21 at 3pm in National League North

Alfreton Town

All competitions
Last Game: Alfreton 2-1 Radcliffe
Saturday, December 21 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 36.57%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Buxton would win this match.

Result
BuxtonDrawAlfreton Town
36.57% (-0.288 -0.29)28.49% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)34.94% (0.292 0.29)
Both teams to score 46.31% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.93% (0.021999999999998 0.02)60.07% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.71% (0.015999999999998 0.02)80.29% (-0.01400000000001 -0.01)
Buxton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.58% (-0.17100000000001 -0.17)31.42% (0.173 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.2% (-0.198 -0.2)67.8% (0.2 0.2)
Alfreton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.53% (0.205 0.2)32.47% (-0.201 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31% (0.23 0.23)69% (-0.229 -0.23)
Score Analysis
    Buxton 36.57%
    Alfreton Town 34.93%
    Draw 28.49%
BuxtonDrawAlfreton Town
1-0 @ 11.81% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
2-1 @ 7.69% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.84% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-1 @ 2.97% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-0 @ 2.64% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.67% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 36.57%
1-1 @ 13.28%
0-0 @ 10.2% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.33% (0.0040000000000004 0)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 28.49%
0-1 @ 11.47% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
1-2 @ 7.47% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
0-2 @ 6.45% (0.067 0.07)
1-3 @ 2.8% (0.031 0.03)
0-3 @ 2.42% (0.039 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.62% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 34.93%

Head to Head
Jan 1, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 26
Buxton
1-2
Alfreton
Minihan (48')
Lund (6'), Waldock (44')
Dec 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 25
Alfreton
2-1
Buxton
Thewlis (40' pen.), Salmon (81')
Elliott (27')
Jan 1, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 26
Buxton
0-0
Alfreton
Dec 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 25
Alfreton
3-0
Buxton
Riley (45'), Thewlis (62'), Rhead (74')