Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chester FC win with a probability of 44.79%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 25.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (7.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chester FC would win this match.