J1 League | Gameweek 28
Sep 23, 2023 at 7am UK
Ajinomoto Stadium

FC Tokyo
3 - 2
Sagan Tosu

Adailton (54', 54'), Watanabe (59', 59'), Tawaratsumida (87', 87')
Trevisan (30'), Trevisan (30')
FT(HT: 0-4)
Naganuma (18', 18'), Togashi (32' pen., 32' pen.)
Coverage of the J1 League clash between FC Tokyo and Sagan Tosu.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Tokyo

All competitions
Last Game: Kawasaki 1-0 FC Tokyo
Friday, September 15 at 11am in J1 League

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Yokohama 1-1 Sagan Tosu
Friday, September 15 at 11am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Tokyo win with a probability of 49.66%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 25.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Tokyo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Tokyo would win this match.

Result
FC TokyoDrawSagan Tosu
49.66% (-0.60700000000001 -0.61)24.51% (0.224 0.22)25.82% (0.381 0.38)
Both teams to score 54.14% (-0.364 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.96% (-0.651 -0.65)48.03% (0.647 0.65)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.79% (-0.6 -0.6)70.2% (0.59699999999999 0.6)
FC Tokyo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.62% (-0.497 -0.5)19.37% (0.494 0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.82% (-0.82100000000001 -0.82)51.17% (0.818 0.82)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.15% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)32.84% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.58% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)69.41% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Score Analysis
    FC Tokyo 49.66%
    Sagan Tosu 25.82%
    Draw 24.51%
FC TokyoDrawSagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.44% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 9.54% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-0 @ 8.57% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
3-1 @ 5.22% (-0.11 -0.11)
3-0 @ 4.69% (-0.094 -0.09)
3-2 @ 2.91% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.14% (-0.079 -0.08)
4-0 @ 1.92% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 49.66%
1-1 @ 11.62% (0.12 0.12)
0-0 @ 6.36% (0.169 0.17)
2-2 @ 5.31% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.51%
0-1 @ 7.09% (0.181 0.18)
1-2 @ 6.47% (0.06 0.06)
0-2 @ 3.94% (0.097 0.1)
1-3 @ 2.4% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.97% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.46% (0.035 0.03)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 25.82%

Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 7am
Gameweek 6
Sagan Tosu
1-0
FC Tokyo
Jun 26, 2022 11am
Gameweek 18
Sagan Tosu
5-0
FC Tokyo
Iwasaki (30'), Diego (48'), Honda (70'), Kakita (78', 85')
Diego (42'), Seok-Ho (90+1')
May 8, 2022 7am
Gameweek 12
FC Tokyo
0-1
Sagan Tosu

Slowik (51'), Yamashita (52'), Matsuki (70')
Horigome (81')
Harada (27'), Fukuta (28')
Aug 9, 2021 11am
Gameweek 23
Sagan Tosu
1-0
FC Tokyo
Sento (7')
Seok-Ho (59')

Oumari (31')
Apr 24, 2021 6am
Gameweek 11
FC Tokyo
1-2
Sagan Tosu
Morishige (53')
Ogawa (5')
Sakai (18'), Higuchi (34')
Matsuoka (46')
rhs 2.0


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