Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashima Antlers win with a probability of 59.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 18.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashima Antlers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 0-1 (6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kashima Antlers would win this match.