Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.

Result
Cartagena	Draw	Villarreal
38.87% ( -0.44)	26.53% ( 0.34)	34.59% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 52.28% (

-1.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.42% (

-1.41)

52.58% (

1.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.76% (

-1.22)

74.23% (

1.21)

Cartagena Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.57% (

-0.89)

26.42% (

0.88)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.4% (

-1.19)

61.59% (

1.19)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.06% (

-0.63)

28.94% (

0.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.18% (

-0.78)

64.82% (

0.78)

Score Analysis

Cartagena 38.86%

Villarreal 34.59%

Draw 26.53%

Cartagena	Draw	Villarreal
1-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 3% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.24% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.25% Total : 38.86%	1-1 @ 12.62% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.16) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.53%	0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 3.23% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.59% Total : 34.59%