Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 57.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 19.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.