Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 59.73%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.81%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Valencia win it was 2-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
Result | ||
Valencia | Draw | Barcelona |
18.9% ( 0.08) | 21.36% ( 0.06) | 59.73% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 55.21% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.83% ( -0.15) | 42.16% ( 0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.43% ( -0.15) | 64.57% ( 0.15) |
Valencia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64% ( 0) | 35.99% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.22% ( 0) | 72.77% ( 0) |
Barcelona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.26% ( -0.09) | 13.74% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.99% ( -0.18) | 41% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Valencia | Draw | Barcelona |
2-1 @ 5.12% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.67% Total : 18.9% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.09% 0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.35% | 1-2 @ 9.96% 0-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 9.74% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.59% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 6.45% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.27% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.2% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.11% Total : 59.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
3 | Barcelona | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64 | 37 | 27 | 70 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 48 |
8 | Valencia | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 37 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |