Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 37.01%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (11.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.