Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 39.89%. A win for Eibar had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Eibar win was 0-1 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.