Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 48.91%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 24.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (8.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.