Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Oviedo win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 28.2% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Oviedo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.