/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fmexlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Feculog.png)
-
Julián Quiñones
22'
-
Raúl Jiménez
31'
-
Alan Franco
45'+1'
Mexico vs Ecuador - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Team News
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Match Preview
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Predicted Lineups
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Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mexico win with a probability of 46.61%. A draw has a probability of 30.46% and a win for Ecuador has a probability of 22.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (8.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (13.41%) , while for a Ecuador win it is 0-1 (9.49%).
Result
Mexico
46.61%
Draw
30.46%
Ecuador
22.93%
Both Teams to Score:
39.55%
▲
(+0.04)
Goals
Over 1.5
62.05%
▼
(-0.04)
Under 1.5
37.95%
▲
(+0.04)
Over 2.5
34.68%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 2.5
65.25%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 3.5
16.27%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 3.5
83.73%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 4.5
8.17%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 4.5
91.83%
▼
(-0.02)
First Half Winner
Mexico
35.7%
▲
(+0.02)
Draw
49.05%
▼
(-0.03)
Ecuador
15.26%
▲
(+0.01)
Team To Score First
Mexico
58.05%
No Goal
12.54%
Ecuador
29.41%
Corners
Over 8
34.19%
Equal 8
11.33%
Under 8
54.48%
Over 9
24.68%
Equal 9
9.5%
Under 9
65.81%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 10.5
17.29%
Under 10.5
82.71%
Mexico Goals
Over 1.5
36.14%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 1.5
63.86%
▲
(+0.01)
Over 2.5
13.23%
Under 2.5
86.77%
Over 3.5
4.37%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 3.5
95.63%
▼
(-0.02)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5
53.31%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 0.5
46.69%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 1.5
19.09%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 1.5
80.91%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 2.5
5.61%
Under 2.5
94.39%
Over 3.5
1.4%
Under 3.5
98.6%
Score analysis
Mexico
46.61%
Draw
30.46%
Ecuador
22.93%
Mexico
1-0
@
15.92%
▲
(+0.01)
2-0 @ 10.19%
2-1 @ 8.21% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.98% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 3.11%
3-2 @ 1.14%
Other @ 4.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 46.61%
2-0 @ 10.19%
2-1 @ 8.21% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.98% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 3.11%
3-2 @ 1.14%
Other @ 4.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 46.61%
Draw
1-1
@
13.41%
0-0 @ 12.54%
2-2 @ 3.57%
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 30.46%
0-0 @ 12.54%
2-2 @ 3.57%
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 30.46%
Ecuador
0-1
@
9.49%
▲
(+0.01)
1-2 @ 4.99% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 3.78%
1-3 @ 1.41% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.23% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.09%
Total : 22.93%
1-2 @ 4.99% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 3.78%
1-3 @ 1.41% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.23% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.09%
Total : 22.93%
Head to Head
-
Cesar Montes
6'
-
Cesar Montes
6'
-
Jorge Sanchez
50'
-
Jorge Sanchez
50'
-
Luis Chavez
73'
-
Luis Chavez
73'
-
Johan Vasquez
82'
-
Johan Vasquez
82'
-
Carlos Uriel
90'+4'
-
Carlos Uriel
90'+4'
-
Moises Caicedo
43'
-
Moises Caicedo
43'
-
Jordy Caicedo
90'+6'
-
Jordy Caicedo
90'+6'
Build-up
Head to head
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How to watch
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Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F06%2Fmexico-s-cesar-montes-walks-off-after-his-red-card-on-june-11-2026-picturealliance-6a2b29ae93ed7414233928.jpg)